Texas GOP out of step with Texans

In the end of 1984 I moved to Texas, and fell in love with the state and the people. It is a state filled with good, compassionate, hardworking folks who have a great sense of hope and optimism, and most walk around with a compassion and a can-do attitude. I worked in politics for the Texas AFL-CIO, for the Texas Democratic Party, and many candidates up and down the ballot including former Lt. Governor Bob Bullock and U.S. Senator Lloyd Bentsen. I actually happened to be the chief strategist for Bullock who was the last high profile Democrat to win statewide in Texas in 1994.

Texas was in the process of change in the 1990s from a reliably “purple” swing state to a red state, and has not elected a Democrat statewide in nearly thirty years. In the last ten years Texas has begun to change back to a purple state — it isn’t there yet but it is getting closer and closer. Why is this change happening? I would suggest from a variety of factors each of which has contributed Texas’ political change from deep red to very light red today. Here are three of the most important causes of Texas current political environment changing:

1. Much has been written about the demographic change in Texas that has profoundly altered the landscape in nearly every county but most especially in the urban areas. The growth of the Latino and Asian population has been immense. They are the two fastest growing demographics in Texas and will continue this trajectory in the years and decades ahead. And while this growth has occurred in nearly every one of the 254 counties, the greatest change has been in urban areas. For years, Harris (Houston), Dallas, and Tarrant (Fort Worth) were reliably Republican and now they are solidly Democratic. And now this change is causing political effects in suburban counties which were Republican and today have become purple. These suburban counties include Ft. Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Williamson, Hays, Collin, Denton and many more. And though rural counties remain solidly Republican, the share they represent of all votes continues to fall.
2. The fascinating thing is there has been a Donald Trump effect here in Texas as well. Unlike other red states surrounding Texas like Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma where Trump was and continues to be relatively popular, Trump has never been overly popular in Texas. This resulted in him in carrying Texas in 2016 and 2020 by much smaller percentages than Romney did in 2012 and McCain in 2008. And because of Trump’s lack of popularity in Texas, Beto O’Rourke was able to come within three percentage points of beating Cruz here in 2018. Texas has always seen itself as more independent minded than deeply partisan as other red states in America. In fact, in 2018 and in 2020 Independents in Texas voted for Beto and Biden which is a significant shift from previous Texas elections the last two decades.
3. While Texans remain today more economically and fiscally conservative (though there has been moderate movement here in last few years), they have never been near as culturally conservative as states in the deep South. Besides Trump’s personal characteristics which most Texans dislike, Trump’s alignment with rightwing cultural and social conservative mantra was not helpful in appealing to Texas independents. A majority of Texan’s today don’t believe the Big Lie concerning widespread voter fraud, they support common-sense gun reform, they support leaving Roe v. Wade the law of the land, support an increase in the minimum wage and greater access and affordability of healthcare for all citizens.

So this leads us to how out of step Texas current Republican leaders are with where Texans are today and where they are headed in the future. It seems that the Texas Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General only want to spend time on social conservative issues which of course solidifies their rural base, but alienates not only Democrats but more and more independents. In fact, in the last month these leaders have led an effort in the Texas state legislature to put serious restrictions on choice for women, to implement voter restrictions based on the myth of voter fraud, and is on verge of putting into law allowing citizens to carry handguns without a license, background check, or training. This is not only insane and dangerous, it flies in the face of where most Texans are on these concerns.

Let me put this succinctly. The Texas GOP, in crazy allegiance to their base and at a time in 2020 there were 200 times more gun deaths than instances of voter fraud (4000 gun deaths; 20 accusations of voter fraud) is restricting voter rights, women’s health choices, and at same exact moment dropping even more restrictions on guns. As shown above Texas has become less and less red and right wing in the last few elections, but GOP leaders wade even deeper into the “red river” and will be swept away in the rapids of change and soon pay the price at the polls.